Falcons in Limbo, Awaiting Pain of Julio Jones Trade

 The Atlanta Falcons head in to the 2012 offseason awaiting the consequences of mismanagement. It took only one over-eager moment to breed disaster, as Thomas Dimitroff allowed frustration to negotiate his deal with Cleveland to draft Julio Jones. The perceived glamour of Roddy White + Julio Jones overwhelmed critical thought, and Falcons fans withdrew fears of a damaged future in exchange for short-term hope. We all know Julio Jones is good and will better, but the trade was bad, and it’s going to hurt worse every month hereafter.

Here’s the deal, Dimitroff traded two first round picks, a second round pick, and two fourth round picks in order to draft a Wide Receiver. Few wide receivers justify a top-five pick, but not even Calvin Johnson should bring the bounty bestowed upon Cleveland.

Let’s turn picks into players to gauge the type of haul we passed up for a WR… In 2011, we lost the 27^th, 54^th, and 124^th picks, and in 2012 we lose the 21^st and 117^th picks. Translating picks into players, it’s like Atlanta traded Mark Ingram, Cordy Glenn, Da’Quan Bowers, Geno Adkins and Jacoby Ford in order to draft Julio.

Using Falcon’s recent draft history, it might be said the trade for Julio Jones is as if Atlanta gave up Sean Weatherspoon, Roddy White, Justin Blaylock, Stephen Nicholas, and Joe Hawley. Deal or no deal? These are Atlanta’s 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th round picks from recent years. In all, that is five starters; I’m not suggesting we gave up five starters for Julio, but we might have (three is a fair guess).

Despite trading five talents for one, the really lethal aspect of the deal is its effect on Atlanta’s upcoming offseason/free agency, and need to plug other holes. Dimitroff, fully aware of the pending concerns, could hardly justify making the move, even for a Calvin Johnson.

Wide receiver was hardly a position of great concern for Atlanta, and even if so, Cleveland used Atl’s 2^nd round pick on Greg Little, who caught 61 balls for 709 yards his rookie year. Little’s stats are most impressive considering his surrounding cast (Seneca Wallace at QB and Mohammad Massaqoi as his receiving mate). With Roddy White taking the attention of opposing secondaries and Matt Ryan delivering NFL-grade passes, Greg Little would shine. Had Atlanta settled on Little, the team would have been blessed with two additional first round picks and two fourth round choices to fill the areas of need in Atlanta – OT, DE, and DB.

Falcons’ 2012 Free Agents

            Starters:

            John Abraham - DE

            Brent Grimes - CB

            Curtis Lofton - LB

            Thomas DeCoud - S

            Todd McClure - C

            Mike Cox – FB

Other Significant Free Agents: Jason Snelling, James Sanders, Kroy Bierman, Harry Douglas, Eric Weems, Michael Palmer, and Vance Walker… (also, Chris Redman). In all, Atlanta has 15 players in the two-deep rotation set to hit the free agent market.

Considering the player-personnel concerns in Atlanta, the pit-falls of trading for a WR are further exaggerated. Wide receivers touch the ball 4-7 times a game, and are not in position to benefit the team on every play. Atlanta will be weaker at offensive tackle and defensive end for the next 3 years (at least) because of this trade. Without solid blind-side protection, Matt Ryan will be asked to continue playing from his back, without the time needed to even take advantage of Julio Jones as a #2 WR. Additionally, Atlanta is left without much opportunity to replenish talent on Defense, just before key-players hit free agency. 

Here are the problem areas going into the 2012 offseason:

Defensive End: The 2011 draft poured DE talent into the league, providing immediate production from rounds one through four. At that time, the Falcons entered draft day with a MASSIVE concern on the defensive front, and the 2011 draft was a platinum-plated, golden opportunity. Even with a flood of super-talented defensive ends, Atlanta came away empty handed. The draft saw 13 DEs picked ahead of Da’Quan Bowers before the second round concluded – FOURTEEN ends, and nearly all had stellar rookie campaigns. Dimitroff struck out looking.

Currently, we have no pass rush for 2012; neither Abraham (age) or Bierman (ability) are solutions for the future. Normally, our defensive performances hinge Abraham’s success, and Atlanta cannot devote the enough $$ to keep him. Without a pick in the top-50 this year, Atlanta likely wont find a source of consistent QB pressure anytime soon.  

OT: The Julio trade has begun its haunt of the offensive line, leaving the Falcons in desperate need of an Offensive Tackle. The hope for Sam Baker turned to dispair, and Matt Ryan felt the pain this year. The Falcons are a miracle shy of giving Ryan the protection needed to take advantage of his receiving tandem. Atlanta needs first round talent at DE and OT, with one late-second-round pick to find both.

WR: Interestingly enough, Atlanta needs a wide receiver. Both Harry Douglas and Eric Weems are free agents, and Douglas’ value has gone up. Atlanta will be forced to take a receiver in the later rounds if neither re-signs.

DB: Finally, Atlanta must find a cornerback and free safety to replace Grimes and DeCoud who both enhanced their open-market values this year. It’s no surprise that Defensive Coordinator, Brian Van Gorder, chose this year to jump ship.

Upcoming Struggles:

Without question, the defense will struggle in 2012, and new Coordinator, Mike Nolan (traditionally a 3-4 coach), must change his mental approach to coach the 4-3. No matter how obvious and avoidable the upcoming mess should have been, the Falcons cannot change the past, and must live with the effects of Dimitroff’s chaotic move. The Falcons might stumble into 6-7 wins next year, but the 5-year prospectus is grim. It’s really amazing how Atlanta transformed its momentum and potential into hopelessness in a matter of three minutes.

What solution is there? Clean house now, and use the upcoming season to rebuild. However, that’s a PR nightmare, and fans don’t allow change until the negative results occur. The Falcons will need one poor year to recognize the problem, another to become angry, and a third to rebuild. Then, Arthur Blank will gut the franchise and start over.  

2012 Prediction: 7-9