Monday, March 26, 2012

Georgia Tech's New Special Teams Coordinator; Right Move?

YES!

This team is better for having the new coach - no question about it - it's foolish to suggest our misery on special teams has something to do with inferior athletes - that is just not the case. We put quality guys out there, but they have trouble covering, blocking, and making plays --- if anyone dedicates their time to improving the special teams processes, the game improves - a few losses are chaulked up to special teams follies, had our special teams performed as expected, we'd have a different 4-yr record.. Just a coach to get kids focused before, let's say, an extra point to tie the game against georgia in the 4th quarter, than maybe the kicker doesn't go out there and turn the simplest play in football into something so nightmare-ish. Or how about a coach who might acknowledge David Wilson in the 4th quarter of a tie game against VT, and find a way to reduce the risk of a TD score. How about the roughing the kicker to grace clemson with a TD next play, and two holding penalties on first two returns to put us in bad field position and get us in holes we couldnt get out of (2010); two muffed punts against air forced most certainly cost us the game; 3 missed fgs against utah to allow overtime (who knows if this coach can actually improve the kicking); against miami this year we missed on a fake punt attempt and we had some foolish muffed punt play that miami picked up for a touchdown; we also allowed a 50 yd return on the kickoff before half to let miami get another TD before the break..

That is five games off the top of my head that special teams put a Loss up for us; now we still could have lost some of those games without the special teams errors, but games like air force and utah turned a win into a loss ---- extra point against georgia - that is a nightmare - that was worse than turning a win to a loss - that turned a possible win into the moment I started to believe that tech is rightly in its place, affixed to the losing column against georgia; it's like a feeling came over me that tech is operating on some wavelength of time that maintains tendencies of all its moving parts, so all the moving parts are able to work together to create and maintain a stable environment for each moment of time... I felt like tech was one of those moving parts, and in this fleeting time wavelength there is the need for tech to lose to georgia in order to maintain the stability of these invincible orbs or whatever the devil it is I am talking about - I just clicked that tech is not meant to beat georgia, it's just the way of the world, and it is nothing for me to worry about... it is just homeostasis  --- Yes - that weird ass sht is why that missed extra point was more than just turning a potential win into a loss - that made me question my existence. This seems all made up - and somebody has me in some dream world where they can make me into a supporter of a football team, but mock me year in and year out by making the one sporting event I value more than any other, consistently end with a spectacular finish of disappointment and disbelief... always inches away, always one unusual event that spells our doom ---- moving on.


Back to Losses that could have been Wins - -- VT probably would have still beaten us in 2010 because it was tevin's first game and he was miserable... I remember NC state taking off against us in 2010 after a blocked punt for a touchdown, but they were just better than us that game, so they prob would have still beaten us too...

Ahhh yes, we most certainly would have won the Kansas game had we not really showed why we suck on special teams- Despite the kicks out of bounds that led to KU scores, I'm skipping ahead to late 3rd quarter, when we are up by 3...... We receive kick off, and we are flagged for a holding  penalty - pinned us back to our 5 or so yard line; we obviously ended up punting, after we get out to the 9-10 yard line, our own 9-10 yrd line... we get ready to punt..... and then the good part ----- an ELEVEN YARD PUNT, lands around our own 20 yard line... needless to say, quick kansas TD to put them up by 4.... we were up by 3 before that happened... that is a great example of our ST - illegal block to cripple the offense, and inability to play field position with kicks .... it was a joke of a special teams sequence

PJ going for it on 4th down had been bad for us the past two years; though good for us the first two--- nevertheless, with a little more confidence in special teams, I doubt we'd have been going for it so much and maybe have another win or two over the past two years... I will say that we might not have an ACC champ if PJ wasn't rolling the dice like that in '09, so I'll take those losses

Maybe we dont lose to uga in '09 if we dont miss a 37 yard field goal early

I remember losing to unc in 2008 purely because of special teams - missed field goals - muffed punts returned for TDs --- two 4th and shorts in a row that we missed (not sure how much lacking special teams confidence was the motivation to go for it)

So overall - the majority of our losses were significantly impacted by special teams over the past two years - especially 2010...

I comfortably say 6 games over the past two years were lost that specifically turned on special teams disasters that gave away games that otherwise would have been ours - 5 of those 6 were victories that the ST managed to turn into a loss - 1/6 (miami this year) - is just a game that special teams allowed to run away from us... these are games in which the turning point was a horrible play by our special teams - one of the units did something that turned the scoarboard against us....

another 3 losses were significantly influenced by special teams disaster plays - though can't be held culpable solely on their own - nevertheless, without such miserable plays, the games may have ended differently - no games that we were just going to lose no matter the circumstance.

By my count 9 of our 12 losses had a real ugly taste of special teams sauce in the mixture --- 50% of our losses were the result of some insanely bad special teaming.... 4 of the losses would have been wins for certain (w/out the terrible play, and just an average sp teams play in exchange)... 2 we were likely to have won -- and 3 I would say the odds were still slightly against us in them if we instead had average speacial teams play, as opposed to miserable

So my point is this - if the new special teams coach does a good job, I don't expect to lose those games anymore; on the contrary, I expect the special teams coach to get us in situations to win football games that we otherwise wouldnt have.... when we play such a clock-oriented, off-balance style of football, momentum is pretty much dictates the execution of our players, and the fear we put into defenses... we lose a bit of momentum, it becomes obvious --- however, with a good special teams unit, teams wont have the luxury of making us pay every time momentum slips away just a bit --- we wont have so many plays that mean so much anymore... it will take an enormous amount of pressure off of 3rd down to know we dont really need to advance that much in order to keep the opponents out of good field position... it isn't like we've got to pick up two first downs before we punt or else we give up a touchdown --- and with this triple option - the pressure really starts to mount long before it does on other teams.... special teams will be the solution to that... how can we be a time of possession, control the tempo of the game type of team if we dont have incredible special teams..... we dont need what everyone else does in the ncaa... --- we need THE BEST special teams unit of anyone we play --- we need the best, because our system of football requires it, and we dont need to commit five stars to be the best on special teams... So it is an obvious opportunity for us to balance the talent differential we might experience against stronger recruiting schools (as of late - I am not admitting that GT is a weak recruiting school... Gailey was the only one who just didnt get highly rated talent - though a bunch went pro... and now PJ is a 3-star hunter by way of his results, and now 10 years of this and "GT is too tough a place to recruit" all of a sudden - we can do it for basketball... and O'Leary did well for himself in Football - top 15 class was a normal thing around here, at one point. Borderwars was kind to us - rivals has been screwing us because now recruiting has a strong flavor of popular media, and the big spenders claim the prizes in the end - when high school kids can feel what it is like in the NFL at age 18 - they start trending toward those schools who seem, albeit on the surface only, capable of bringing the NFL feel to them on a long term basis.... so a few teams emerge above all others because money and pop culture take the talent, and some teams obviously hav significantly larger budgets than others - so teams like alabama lsu florida - and other SEC schools who shall remain nameless (georgia - i cannot stand georgia) begin to corner the talent and establish small dynasties... luckily the best Xs and Os coaches are not necessarily the ones who entrench themselves atop the crown(s) of an SEC powerhouse; it happens to be whoever brings in the right talent at the right time to a school that also has the $$$ to bring in a strong staff of assistant coaches - that is why you get guys like Les Miles as head coach at LSU - consistently paroling the top-5.

What is scary is when really good coaches also manage to bring talent to their situation.... i.e. Nick Saban - I dont know what college football will do to counteract saban - we'll all just need to wait until he gets disinterested and starts slipping up, losing confidence little by little - then a new power can rise to the top... remember, LSU was one of the worst teams in college football in the late 90s - South Carolina couldn't even win a game - both teams were on the level of DUKE - and that is no exaggeration... so it isn't far fetched for a team like GT to become a superpower, all of a sudden bringing in consistent talent, and stealing a spot atop the rankings over time- in 2001 we were preseason #1 by the Washington Post - had we actually lived up to expectations, who knows where we would be right now...Urban Meyer was the invincible guy a few years ago, but then he got scared of saban power and ran away to the west, preferring to be the big fish in a smaller pond, an easier route to the national title every year- no SEC championship game to bring Saban back into his life... now, Meyer can go win at ohio state, with confidence that no coach will out muscle him, while hoping that saban trips up during the season and doesn't make his way to the title game.

Urban Meyer is the biggest chump in college football, despite his success - running away from the first formidable opponent to cross his path... he might get another title, but I wont respect him, as he sought out the situation offering him the greatest chance at national success, while keeping away from obstacles in alabama - now muschamp is left to do the impossible - build a national contender from the remains of a spread football team - though talented, the players are lost without consistent offensive coaching and no quarterback to carry the team... no more chris leak or tim tebow... I'll be surprised to see any BCS success down in florida in the coming 5 years

Nevertheless - I think GT is taking steps in the right direction under Paul Johnson - I believe QB is the key to really seeing this sucker flourish, and special teams to balance out what deficiencies in talent we might observe when playing teams more in tune with pop culture (recruiting) -- it gives us the chance to continually beat clemson, VT, and dare I say.... georgia - we need a strong o-line, incredible QB and quality talent at the skill positions - I dont think anyone other than the QB need be elite, and Vad Lee + Justin Thomas is a great start.. we are lucky to have each of them... Sims is a nice piece at b-back, orwin is obviously a good player to have, and we need a nice blend of guys on the opposite side of orwin - sometimes a running threat, sometimes a blocker - both if possible - I like the bodies we've got out at WR, so I really believe this GT team has the makings of a top notch team - but we need to make a BCS impression very soon if we ever intend to climb to the top... the special teams coach does so much for us on so many levels (assuming he is effective) - think about what made the Gailey squad so good in 2006... a team of two-stars plus Calvin Johnson... it was our PUNTER - durant brooks - we beat teams more talented than us because they were never positioned to grab us by the throat; they were always pinned back, and we balanced out the talent differential by keeping other teams at bay, never giving them so much opportunity to exploit their talent by limiting the offensive approach through poor field position via strong GT special teams...

If we can start to control field position, along with out control of the game clock and game tempo; we will be able to orchestrate the development of every game, and we will truly have the ability to use the spread option to our advantage... we quickly become a 9-win-minimum team, and we will have our crack at running the table with good special teams units - if we start making more field goals, honing in on punt placement and coverage, and making sure no team starts much beyond the 20 after a kickoff, the spread option will be relieved of many pressures, and we will really keep defenses off balance - also, a lot of pressure will be taken off of PJ's shoulders, and he wont start behaving erratically like he did in the VT game, as if he was playing a playstation game. I see great things coming from this hire, as it is an effort to not only improve our special teams, but to make better that of our opponent - that is the trick..

Great move, in my opinion - a very well placed set of resources.

I also hear that there is a recruiting advantage to all of this - what am I missing here? the guy hasn't even been coaching in this country; where is the recruiting appeal coming from - I dont believe anything on the resume has the undertone of a strong recruiter, but I am not really concerned there- let this guy fix up our special teams, and get us back those wins we've been giving away - with immediate ST success, I see GT as a 9 to 11 win team this year (assuming one of our younger, more athletic guys takes over at Quarterback). PJ has been slow to adjust to certiain things, but he nevertheless does make those adjustments - even after it seems that he is staunchly opposed. Great stuff to come on the football field... I hope we hear a little more about this upcoming football team and less about '13-'14 recruits - something about 17 yr old players, 3-4 years away from starting a football game is uninteresting to me, but I might just be in the minority... either way, this is a great hire for GT, even though it may not feel like the industry standard... our team is anything but standard - now lets just get Vad or Justin out there at QB and all the pieces will be in place..... boom

Friday, January 27, 2012

Falcons in Limbo, Awaiting Pain of Julio Jones Trade



 The Atlanta Falcons head in to the 2012 offseason awaiting the consequences of mismanagement. It took only one over-eager moment to breed disaster, as Thomas Dimitroff allowed frustration to negotiate his deal with Cleveland to draft Julio Jones. The perceived glamour of Roddy White + Julio Jones overwhelmed critical thought, and Falcons fans withdrew fears of a damaged future in exchange for short-term hope. We all know Julio Jones is good and will better, but the trade was bad, and it’s going to hurt worse every month hereafter.

Here’s the deal, Dimitroff traded two first round picks, a second round pick, and two fourth round picks in order to draft a Wide Receiver. Few wide receivers justify a top-five pick, but not even Calvin Johnson should bring the bounty bestowed upon Cleveland.

Let’s turn picks into players to gauge the type of haul we passed up for a WR… In 2011, we lost the 27th, 54th, and 124th picks, and in 2012 we lose the 21st and 117th picks. Translating picks into players, it’s like Atlanta traded Mark Ingram, Cordy Glenn, Da’Quan Bowers, Geno Adkins and Jacoby Ford in order to draft Julio.

Using Falcon’s recent draft history, it might be said the trade for Julio Jones is as if Atlanta gave up Sean Weatherspoon, Roddy White, Justin Blaylock, Stephen Nicholas, and Joe Hawley. Deal or no deal? These are Atlanta’s 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks from recent years. In all, that is five starters; I’m not suggesting we gave up five starters for Julio, but we might have (three is a fair guess).
Despite trading five talents for one, the really lethal aspect of the deal is its effect on Atlanta’s upcoming offseason/free agency, and need to plug other holes. Dimitroff, fully aware of the pending concerns, could hardly justify making the move, even for a Calvin Johnson.

Wide receiver was hardly a position of great concern for Atlanta, and even if so, Cleveland used Atl’s 2nd round pick on Greg Little, who caught 61 balls for 709 yards his rookie year. Little’s stats are most impressive considering his surrounding cast (Seneca Wallace at QB and Mohammad Massaqoi as his receiving mate). With Roddy White taking the attention of opposing secondaries and Matt Ryan delivering NFL-grade passes, Greg Little would shine. Had Atlanta settled on Little, the team would have been blessed with two additional first round picks and two fourth round choices to fill the areas of need in Atlanta – OT, DE, and DB.
Falcons’ 2012 Free Agents
            Starters:
            John Abraham - DE
            Brent Grimes - CB
            Curtis Lofton - LB
            Thomas DeCoud - S
            Todd McClure - C
            Mike Cox – FB

Other Significant Free Agents: Jason Snelling, James Sanders, Kroy Bierman, Harry Douglas, Eric Weems, Michael Palmer, and Vance Walker… (also, Chris Redman). In all, Atlanta has 15 players in the two-deep rotation set to hit the free agent market.

Considering the player-personnel concerns in Atlanta, the pit-falls of trading for a WR are further exaggerated. Wide receivers touch the ball 4-7 times a game, and are not in position to benefit the team on every play. Atlanta will be weaker at offensive tackle and defensive end for the next 3 years (at least) because of this trade. Without solid blind-side protection, Matt Ryan will be asked to continue playing from his back, without the time needed to even take advantage of Julio Jones as a #2 WR. Additionally, Atlanta is left without much opportunity to replenish talent on Defense, just before key-players hit free agency. 

Here are the problem areas going into the 2012 offseason:

Defensive End: The 2011 draft poured DE talent into the league, providing immediate production from rounds one through four. At that time, the Falcons entered draft day with a MASSIVE concern on the defensive front, and the 2011 draft was a platinum-plated, golden opportunity. Even with a flood of super-talented defensive ends, Atlanta came away empty handed. The draft saw 13 DEs picked ahead of Da’Quan Bowers before the second round concluded – FOURTEEN ends, and nearly all had stellar rookie campaigns. Dimitroff struck out looking.
Currently, we have no pass rush for 2012; neither Abraham (age) or Bierman (ability) are solutions for the future. Normally, our defensive performances hinge Abraham’s success, and Atlanta cannot devote the enough $$ to keep him. Without a pick in the top-50 this year, Atlanta likely wont find a source of consistent QB pressure anytime soon.  

OT: The Julio trade has begun its haunt of the offensive line, leaving the Falcons in desperate need of an Offensive Tackle. The hope for Sam Baker turned to dispair, and Matt Ryan felt the pain this year. The Falcons are a miracle shy of giving Ryan the protection needed to take advantage of his receiving tandem. Atlanta needs first round talent at DE and OT, with one late-second-round pick to find both.

WR: Interestingly enough, Atlanta needs a wide receiver. Both Harry Douglas and Eric Weems are free agents, and Douglas’ value has gone up. Atlanta will be forced to take a receiver in the later rounds if neither re-signs.

DB: Finally, Atlanta must find a cornerback and free safety to replace Grimes and DeCoud who both enhanced their open-market values this year. It’s no surprise that Defensive Coordinator, Brian Van Gorder, chose this year to jump ship.

Upcoming Struggles:
Without question, the defense will struggle in 2012, and new Coordinator, Mike Nolan (traditionally a 3-4 coach), must change his mental approach to coach the 4-3. No matter how obvious and avoidable the upcoming mess should have been, the Falcons cannot change the past, and must live with the effects of Dimitroff’s chaotic move. The Falcons might stumble into 6-7 wins next year, but the 5-year prospectus is grim. It’s really amazing how Atlanta transformed its momentum and potential into hopelessness in a matter of three minutes.

What solution is there? Clean house now, and use the upcoming season to rebuild. However, that’s a PR nightmare, and fans don’t allow change until the negative results occur. The Falcons will need one poor year to recognize the problem, another to become angry, and a third to rebuild. Then, Arthur Blank will gut the franchise and start over.  

2012 Prediction: 7-9 

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Whale Wars Team - Determination without Intelligence; Who really faces extinction, the Japanese or the Whales?

What exactly is the Sea Sheppard crew trying to accomplish, and how? The team atrociously ineffective,  and have mis-diagnosed Japanese motivation. The biggest success: 4 seasons on TV.

Step 1 - Find the mother ship of the Japanese Whaling fleet...
Step 2 - Uhhh.. let's spend four seasons on TV trying to figure that out

Maybe the best thing the crew has done is spread awareness, but as far as achieving the proclaimed daily goals, the half-wits put show the world a tactical skill set no better than a high-speed canine chasing a car. At least dogs seem interested only in the chase, but whale warriors, in pursuit of a greater goal - stop the Nissin maru - expose their canine-like ineptitude once the chase is over, and the time for step two arrives.

I just watched an episode where the smaller, faster boat found the Nissin, but could not paralyze the floating whale processor alone. The goal of the small ship: slow the Nissin, until backup can arrive. The problems: the Nissin can navigate through ice-fields, the small boat cannot without titanic-like results. Also, the backup boat boat (the Bob Barker) is too slow to arrive within range before the Nissin hits the ice, ostensibly escaping into the Antarctic like those pesky needles who find refuge from human sight in hay stacks.

Alright, the small ship is the reconnaissance boat, fast enough to track the Nissin Maru, relaying the location back to the other two Whale-defending boats. In four seasons, the good guys developed only one way to track the Japanese once found, follow them. If the Japanese escape before the Bob Barker arrives, the needle goes back into the haystack.

As impressive as mankind's technological evolution has been, the anti-whalers are left with surprisingly primitive tracking abilities. The flurry of obstacles facing our Whale heros does squeeze out every possible ounce of suspense to otherwise bland programming, but the disappointing results make the multi-million dollar effort seem like a whale of a waste.

Well, viewers seem sufficiently content just watching two boats play paintball, but why not pack one of those projectiles with a tracking device. The boats even collide at times; I'd say there is ample opportunity to attach a surreptitious tracking devise to the evil Nissin Maru.

Better yet, the boat must go to port, so why not attack when the vessel is at a standstill. If blowing up the propeller is not inline with the pursuit of pacifism, at least make the vessel more track-able. What about attacking the meat processing functionality. ANY preemptive strike is sure to be more effective. Instead, our heroes wait until whaling practice is well underway before embarking on the mission to annoy Japanese away from the whales.

The Nissin does not slay whales, only processing them, so while the whale war is engaged, the harpoon ships freely roam about, slaughtering the pacifist movement, one whale at a time.

However, I must wonder what motivates the Japanese... Whale meat is contaminated with mercury, and the Japanese government subsidizes private whaling in the Antarctic, just to keep the industry economically sustainable. Despite falling dramatically short of its whaling quota, there was no reported spike in the price of whale meat, normally expected with a supply shortage. So, either the reported quota was misleading, or the biggest purchaser of whale meat is the Japanese government, who is best equipped to mitigate the pricing effects of supply shortages.

Combine those inferences with the well-known Japanese  struggle to maintain its food supply, and I'm led to believe that the whaling practice may be one the Japanese rely on to reduce hunger. Why else would Japanese fisheries remain adamant about procuring whale meat, despite its un-profitability, health concerns, lacking world market, and negative world sentiment.

The Japanese have no food. We are a pampered society, who lives to eat, so we can hardly empathize with starving nations, especially those like Japan who do not have the typical complexion of a starving country, as its technology and industry mask the difficult truth. Even milk is often considered a luxury in Japan, and school children consume the mercury-riddled whale meat without much alternative. The Japanese population is shrinking as deaths continually outpace births. Japanese families avoid child rearing, resulting from the concern with providing children a healthy environment.

So I ask, who is in more danger of extinction, the Japanese or the whales?


These are all thoughts of Tony Salloum, written, un-edited. No proof reading before posting... just free flowing thoughts...

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Georgia Tech Depth Chart Concerns

 Just saw the rambinwreck.com updated Georgia Tech Football depth chart for 2011.. here are my unedited comments....

What a disappointing depth chart. I love PJ, and believe in him in almost everyway, but two things I just dont like about him - 1. pre and early season depth charts, and 2. recruiting mentality. (I'm only going to comment on #1)

 Except for PJ's first year (when the depth chart was a no-brainer), I've constantly felt like players are out of position on both offense and defense, and the best player for the position is hiding behind another position or on the bench.

Offensively, to contend for a starting spot, PJ does not have a very high talent requirment; most anyone on the team is in the mix (which is pretty cool), BUT it seems like PJ hands out a written test to all his contenders-to-start, and who ever gets the highest grade wins the job.It may as well be an algebra test. Gaming ability is thrown out the window. Before changing his mind, the decision must be painfully obvious to world.

I'm usually on the rivals board, and those guys rip on me every year I make the who should be where comment, but nothing I've ever said seems like a radical comment; it usually seems straight forward.Now, I know PJ doesn't make all the defensive calls, but I'm going to include them in the discussion.

In 2009: It made me cringe to see Joseph Gilbert starting over Uzzi; just plain disgusted, but any comment about it, was just interpreted as a shot on Gilbert and PJ b/c we are all supposed to have some blind faith in everything PJ does....   Ok, you are all going to hate this next one b/c Sean Bedford is an outstanding human and has the drive and intelligence everyone wants to see in every single person who ever plays football. But benching Dan Voss mid-season -our best O-lineman before hitting the bench - even when healthy, for someone Sean who was half his size. Now, Sean was an excellent football player, and was usually very successful, but there were blocks he was simply not capable of making. PJ praised him, so he never got any bad press, but it was funny how the interior line was widely considered the weakest spot on the offense - especially when we'd face big DT's. It wouldn't have been such a bad move had he any extra support from his right guard. The man was 1st team all-acc because his unbelievable drive, widely acclaimed intelligence, and, for the most part, strong performance on the field. But the poor guy had no chance against the likes of jeff owens, geno atkins, kade weston (UGA DTs), and joe joseph, marcus fortson (Miami Dts)  - I hate saying this b/c sean bedford really should never have a negative word spoken about him, but Voss was big, strong, and experienced, starting every game in '08, and almost every game in '07 (when we led the league in rushing under Gailey).

A quick comparison btwn our rushing in 2008 and 2009 against the teams with NFL-type DTs after Voss was benched in favor of the smaller but pound for pound tougher Sean Bedford.

In 2008, with Voss at center, VS. 2009 w. Bedford at center - against NFL-type defensive tackes
      Against Miami 2008 (Joe Joseph, Marcus Fortson: DTs) - 472 yards rushing by GT (Dwyer 125yds/10 carries; Cox 78yds/8carries)
      Against Miami 2009 with Bedford at Center (same DTs) - 95 yards rushing by GT (3 GT B-backs combine for 19yds/8carries) - DTs forced nesbitt to keep ball away from b-backs

      Against Georgia 2008, w/ Voss (DTs: Geno Atkins, Kade Weston) - 409yds rushing by GT (Dwyer 20/144 - roddy had the huge game, threat of the dive play freed up the corner for jones)
      Against Georgia 2009 w/Bedford (DTs: Atkins, Weston, Owens) - 205 rushing by GT( Dwyer 14carries/33yards, Nesbitt 19 carries/41 yards)


 I only did that because I couldn't understand the logic, Voss had proven himself against all qualities of DTs, yet Bedford was the favorite, and in 3/4 games in 2009 which Bedford faced NFL quality DTs, he was totally destroyed; UNC is the exception, and even the UNC game where Bedford started I saw one highlight where 40 of Dwyers yards came when Voss entered the game and popped open a huge hole up the middle
       

The defense in 2009 was a mystery to me how many times did everyone except the coaches need to say - put peters back at DE, move tarrant to safety (he sucks at corner), at least start Mario edwards at safety over all the other experiments -- well all that stuff eventually came true

Luckily for us, we did well in 2009, but 2010 was a whole different issue - With all the a-backs available, Embry peeples was starting... we were all excited with the Orwin commitment two years before, but some how nobody seemed to mind that Embry was starting ahead of him - Embry has run scared since he cam to GT - and it again took Peeple disaster for orwin to take the first snaps - ask yourself how could Paul Johnson have such poor player identification that the 4th best (at MOST) a-back on the team started 7 games over the HANDS DOWN best a-back on the team, who by the way, had played in 21 games before getting a start - so it aint like PJ had no data to go off of - he can't get away with saying orwin was a surprise or didnt know the offense as well as embry; I dont care if it was orwins first day on the field - I'll take orwin smith with a frontal lobotomy to start in that situation

Somehow Julian Burnette sunk to the deepest part of the depth chart pre-season last year.. What... a... Joke... That was a jaw dropper; PJ should have gone to Groh and informed him who JB is, and that height means nothing when you're the best defensive player on the team.. Maybe the best player on the team. yea, i dont think he was in the 3 deep to start the season, but i could be wrong about that..

Rod Sweeting.... is this seriously going to be his first start coming up this year? D. Reese was starting over him?//??

How about last year, all of our safeties pretty much sucked (except for Isiah, but still just premature), and Jemea Thomason was doing what?... red shirting? Okay, how about this; we have him at cornerback right now, such a convenient place to be lost on a depth chart while learning the wrong position, ruining him for other positions when. Oh my word - there is an opening at strong safety? Jemea Thomas had better be starting at safety next year, or we need to hire a coach who specifically evaluates and makes suggestions for the two-deep cause our top guys have vision problems in some big places.

The coaches will have no choice to start a talented secondary this year, but they are certainly doing their best to keep it handicapped slightly.. Reid is a great utility player, but Thomas might just be the best at playing the game of football out of all the DBs - he is just natural, oh and he is gifted physically.. the man shows up in game situations, what on earth is needed beyond that.

The front seven - two of the top three most talented players on the defense are not in the right position: Brandon Watts, Anthony Williams. Watts is not geared for MLB, he needs to have the freedom to move with more instinct, and he has the size to do it at OLB. Anthony Williams = What are we doing to this poor kid? We spit in TJ striplings face just to make sure we got Williams, now we are throwing him in the trash. A 3-4 DEFENSIVE END? Williams, at his biggest, is a tweener even in a 4-3 - the guy aint ever going to get over 250, and if he does, than the gifts that made him so attractive out of highschool will be gone forever. If he still can't do well in coverage, than use him in passing situations, BUT AT OUTSIDE LINEBACKER, or switch up to a one-gap 3-4..

Just please let S. Green start; this year is no different than the previous 2 on defense - I don't understand what is happening with the player arrangement - JC lanier got what 2 days at NT? what a joke, i understand he's a bit tall, but we have a 6-7 Starting Offensive tackle playing backup NT.  How about Izaan, a pretty darn good solution for us at NT; regardless he is a solid end - now that we lost McCoy, I'm terrified for the future.. oh, but I just remembered F. Kallon committed to us - I'm OKAY now. My real hope is that Tuitt realizes that he is an NFL talent who may never see the field at DE, NFL wise he would be be a 3-4 OLB, but I'm hoping he realizes that coming back to GT,where he belongs, and where there is no log jam on the outsides of our front 7 - what a fool his mother is - his confidence might be shot by the time he has an opportunity to start - say as a RS sophomore or junior. And considering he has the personality of a giant teddy bear, he is not going to assert himself enough to force the coaches to do something about it.. passive aggressive - that boy needs encouragement his mom wont let him speak without permission, and not only has she probably cost him 50% of his mental masculinity, she might have cost him a career - poor kid was too scared to even tell his mom he was committing to GT, and she embarrassed him in front of countless fans. He doesnt want to be there, Notre Dame knows he doesn't want to be there, and he is a mental softy.. what a waste - he stands no chance in Notre Dame where the fans are like Yank fans, except Notre Dame is not good at football anymore. No, they are not good at football - even when ranked highly, they are not very good at football, but they sure will be good enough to trample S. Tuitt - if you read this ST, get out while there is still time; you're mother cannot control you, your education, food, and shelter will be paid for at GT, and then you will make a million bucks a year when you leave - she has no leverage.


Back to the out of position players on offense.

Tevin - tevin is great; he works hard, he's humble, he does what he is told (which PJ loves), he is a decent athlete - only has one catch to him - he sucks at football (by division I-A standards). Nobody realizes all the little things he does poorly that make other players look bad, but darn, the guy is cunning enough to find inflated stats, just so he can give the media a bit of justification before considering him a likely starter.  He reminds me of a Toyota Prius, quiet, compact but goofy, and takes forever to get moving, but when there is no need for acceleration puts together some decent stats. Also, how many people have been killed so far b/c of prius' inability to merge on entry ramps, or b/c it is so quiet people step out in front of it in parking lots? How many fumbles does tevin force people to make b/c of his horrible fakes, or inability to take an angle toward the line of scrimage... just gives away to the linebackers what is happening with the 8th grade football fakes, and serves up his own a-backs to be destroyed by any safety or LB in contain cause he gives away the pitch with a flat run to the outside..

By miracle, we did have a chance to win some games he played in, but he would usually break the hearts of his team mates by building the hope and throwing an interception to seal our fate (3 times in 5 games, nice). Tevin Washington alone will cost the team 3 losses next year - and he has no capacity to win a game on his own. Tevin, you've should do everything you can to go out there and win the job and win some games, but Paul Johnson just might sink the program if he allows that to go on all year


Moving on to Preston Lyons... Come on.. First Tevin, now Preston?? we can't do both, it just isnt going to work - for the love of Bobby Ross, please don't do this to us PJ, make us both bad and BORING. So many other players could take this spot, and yes - I watched the spring game over and over again, picking it apart, and I'm sorry but Preston is our 4th best option at B-back.. I would actually say he is more like the 6th best option, if players at other positions qualify for this ranking. It isn't like the man has any real experience, just cause he was there, doesn't mean he participated. 14 carries last year? and none of those carries were impressive - i think i remember a cool touchdown pass he caught, but that is a little hazy

You know Paul Johnson's strategy this year might be to bore defenses so badly, they become disinterested and lose the football game. I'm sure Tevin will be nice enough to give other teams about 7 points a game with supremely timed turnovers. Alone, Tevin either gave a touchdown to the opponent, or cost us a touchdown in every single game he played real minutes in - yea, think about it, every single game. He is one player who i feel confident saying the experience he got so far is a BAD thing, and I will take any talented player with no experience to start over him; it will not be any worse than the best we've seen out of tevin. Good luck to tevin, putting up any numbers this year without Anthony Allen clearing space for him, or austin jackson sacrificing his body to give him some room. The combo of tevin, lyons, and kidney running the triple option to the right should make for some HUGE defensive highlight reels. What a joke - it's like PJ is testing GT world to see how much he will be allowed to get away with. It is a relief to have someone like PJ, who is incredible with Xs and Os, and great confidence  in his play calling, but the man is terrible at just about everything else. He doesn't care to make his players happy; when a player questions him, he doesn't take the time to address the question, only disregarding the concern, proclaiming he is the know-it-all, and everybody else should just deal with it.. It's mind boggling that every player with even a shred of NFL talent has run as fast as possible from the program; morgan burnette gave up being a first round pick, dwyer ended up hating football so much that he can't bring himself to train, Claytor probably cries himself to sleep; Tarrant cared so little about the team, he willingly gave up touchdowns by intentionally letting receivers get a step deep, so he could time his break to get an interception-- he was trying to trick his way into the draft. Jaybo transferred, luallen transferred, Gilbert transferred (thank goodness), Antonio Foster is gone (i dont know why, but I could guess), Sims tried to transfer, far too many recruits de-commit, everybody who can go pro, does. Kyle Jackson gave up 2 years of eligibility to go to more school, rocker gave up 1 (i get rocker, but Jackson had not even taken the lsat; he just used law school as his scape goat). Cooper taylor transferred - it is a little scary when the core of a championship team genuinely does not like its own coach - the same coach who took the team out of mediocrity into an ACC championship and to its first BCS game. The man didn't think he needed special teams - I remember Mario Edwards' comments to the media talking about how a day at GT was so much different than at VT b/c beemer spent time on special teams, and GT practice didn't have much room (or care) for it - we ranked 97th in both categories of kick coverage? Now, that is excessive pride.. assuming no punts or field goals before the year begins.

Somehow, the world is convinced we are deep at b-back - where is this coming from? If depth is just a calculation of people going after one job, sure I guess so, but our starter would fight for playing time at duke, Perkins has some hype, but it is all from the mouth of PJ - on paper, Perkins seems like a no-brainer, but the fact that he hasn't even secured a backup role frightens me.. Preston has not even looked good against bad teams.. Richard watson was the by-far best b-back in spring, running behind a horrific line, which is undermatched compared to our #2 front seven, a pretty talented bunch - our starting front seven is not nearly as strong as some of the fronts we will see this year (clemson, unc, miami, even nc state is strong) also, Georgia is overflowing with talent on the front seven - and our #1 offense couldn't do anything in the spring game - preston looked like it was 4th&1 on every play, perkins looked strong, but he also looks like a runner who must find room, without much ability to create room on his own - If we had a good O-line, I'd say perkins should be the clear cut started, but Tevin screws the O-line b/c he gives away plays with horrible timing and mechanics, and he sits on his heels, requiring and extra half-step to get moving, giving opposing LBs a huge margin for error with their reads. SO, we b-back whose presence will make LBs think twice - preston and tevin will never make defenses suffer for making mistakes (not enough at least), and neither can take full advantage of an o-line executing well. Perkins will be able to maximize the good play of his o-line,but it would help him to have more room up the middle if the LBs worried just a bit about the QB taking things outside. Richard Watson was the best in the spring game b/c he would at least run with his eyes looking downfield, but it would certainly be tougher for him if he played with tevin b/c the defense would never waste the time of worrying what tevin is going to do, so the inside focus will be completely on the b-back.

David sims is the only player back there capable of scaring a defense - i know it would be only raw talent playing b-back, but he is good for a couple big plays a game, and that threat alone will free up the offense breath a little bit. Perkins would be best with a dangerous QB, lyons would be best on 4th down and hitting his assignment on blocks (but how much do we really need a back to block when he is the lone setback, lining up 3 yards deep - NOT MUCH, so why is blocking such a concern, it is more just being a dummy up the middle that is important. Back to perkins: despite his size, i think he would fit best with THIS cast of players as an a-back, where he will have some extra time to find some blocks to follow, and run through arm tackles, making a contain assignment more difficult. I don't see any way we can avoid using a healthy dose of sims; he is the only b-backwho can score in any scenario, so if tevin starts, we've got to have Sims back there to keep the defense honest, despite that play or two every game where sims will turn a 2 yard gain into a 4 yard loss - It will have to be sims on 3rd and more 4+ yards to go, at the very least. I understand why we wouldn't want to use him on 1st down.

Overall, I wouldn't characterize the b-back spot as "deep;" "full" is a better word. It all depends on field position (really, overall game situation); from the GT goal line to the 35 (our side of the field), perkins is generally my first and second down back, with watson my 3rd and less than 5 (keep perkins in for 3rd and longer). From the GT 35 to the opponents 40, Watson is my 1st down guy, perkins is my 2nd and 5-1 to go, Sims is my 2nd and 5+ to go (2nd and really short goes to sims b/c of the wide open field); lyons is the 3rd and short; 3rd&3or4 goes back to perkins, and up to 3rd & 7 if we would go on 4th 0-2 yds; if we wont be going for it on 4th and short sims is my 3rd&5+; from the 40-the edge of FG range sims is my 1st and 2nd as well as my 3rd and 7+, perkins is my 3rd & everything else, other than 3rd&really short (that is Lyons); Within field goal range I'm back at perkins for everything, other than some 3rd and mid plays for watson... Lyons will be the 3rd and 4th & short in most any situation, probably 3rd and 4th & 2 is where I keep Lyons.

That was all assuming Tevin is the QB, with Days at QB, I'm pretty much sticking with Perkins all the time, other than specialty situations, and I'd rather be running Sims at a-back most of the time with Days at QB.

Go ahead and forget about stephen hill if Tevin starts; the two simply do not have complimentary skill sets; Jackson and Waller (from what I understand) seem like the type of possession receivers, physical enough to come down with the balls tevin will put out there.. Hill is a finesse receiver, who catches over the shoulder only, and is not viable as a possession guy, so he needs a qb with a stronger arm and can actually throw while moving laterally.

Orwin is our best offensive started (other than Uzzi), so we will have to get creative with him, and I think Roddy is a good compliment, but other than that tandem - I don't think any of our current starters compliment each other; it is an erratic skill set, and I don't think the coaches are thinking about who fits compared to the surrounding cast. Seems the thought is only who can execute the generic version of PJs offense.

Tevin will not finish the season as the starting QB; considering his lack of deception, I'd be worried that he would get injured before anything else takes him out of it.

ALSO, a Tevin offense horrible on first downs, unusual for the spread option, so we'll see a lot more 2nd down passes from Tevin and company, but knowing his tendency to move to his weak side, I'm sure we will see a lot of interceptions.. Josh was quick enough to avoid strong side pressure in the pocket by stepping behind it and quickly moving to the right. Tevin isnt quick enough for that, and strong side heat forces him to the left, and if he doesn't get sacked before squaring his shoulders, he could complete some balls, but he is more likely to get sacked or just throw across his body, making for some potential interceptions.

Player predictions(if Tevin Starts):

Orwin Smith: 590 yards rushing, 7.7 ypc, 5 TDs;  375 yards receiving, 2 TDs
Perkins: 425 yards rushing, 5.7ypc, 6 TDs; 150 yds receiving, 0 TDs
Lyons: 260 yards rushing, 4.1ypc 3 TDs; 65 yds receiving 1 TD
Watson: 300 yards rushing, 4.9 ypc, no receiving
Sims: 375 yds rushing, 6.1 ypc, 4 TD; 280 yards receiving 2 TDs
Jones: 400 yds rushing, 5.5 avg 2 TD; 105 yds receiving, 0 TDs

Tevin: 715 yards rushing, 3.7 avg, 7 TDs; 1300 yds passing 6 TDs 11 Ints.... GT record 5-7


If Days starts every game: 890 yards rushing, 5.1 ypc; 12 TDs; 1,700 yds passing, 4 TDs 9 int..... GT Record 8-4 (win bowl game to 9-4)
Perkins w/ Days starting: 1,100 yards rushing, 6.0 ypc, 9 TD; 190 yds receiving, 1 TD
Smith w/ Days starting: 775 yards rushing, 8.1 ypc, 7TD, 310 yds receiving
Jones w/ Days: 225 yards rushing, 150 yds receiving
Sims: 275 yds rushing, 260 yds receiving (6 total TDs)

If Vad Lee starts every game: 1,120 yards rushing, 5.0 ypc; 1,900 yds passing 13 TD, 12 int.... GT record 8-4 (lose bowl game to 8-5)
Perkins at 700 yds rushing
Smith at 850 yds rushing; 450 yds receiving
Hill at 750 yds receiving
Sims at 250 yards rushing 275 yds receiving
Jones: 315 yards rushing


I say if Vad Lee comes in better than expected, let him go out there and start the whole year, Tevin is a death sentence for this team, and we will lose to North Carolina, NC State, and Maryland to start out our ACC schedule, permanently putting us in a rut.. we literally have no chance to win any of those games if Tevin and Lyons take the majority of those snaps - I say this with complete confidence we will be 3-3 heading into the UVA game.. I think Days  will lead us to strong records every year, but can't quite do-it-all to really shred offenses

Lee, if his blend of running and passing is at all what it seems to be from his video, and he is strong-minded and intelligent, gives us our only opportunity to be a top 10 team again in the future; our Defense will be there two years from now, but I don't think our offense can every have consistency throughout an entire season without Lee getting the experience needed to be a master of a more open offense.. The best thing for this program is to roll the dice with the most talented QB, so long as the mental ability is there. If Lee has a good mind, and he's got the right personality, throw him out there Day 1 - we've got nothing to lose.. Tevin will not lead us to a winning season, it just wont happen, he makes the players around him worse, and the team is completely limited in its abilities, especially in tight situations - too many long third downs with tevin - he can't sustain a drive, even if he picks up solid yardage, the drive will be shut down eventually - defenses dont need to stay honest at any point; they can bring the pressure without fear of being punished, the safeties will never drop out of the box - there is absolutely no way to win with Tevin.. And Paul Johnson isn't saying so b/c he  is a man of principal, and using a guy like tevin allows him to calculate every single move.

PJ spent 7 years at navy where he rarely played strong opponents, and was completely aware of the limitations on his players, so everything could be calculated with him.. Things arent so easily calculated when players could produce in ways plays might not necessarily be drawn up to produce yards.. he only sees a players capability within the execution of his own formula; to him - if a certain block is missed, the ball carrier is going own; the concept of a missed key block not preventing a talented guy from getting 9 yards has no room for his calculations.

He knows that Bey-Bey's ability to catch Nesbitt's jump balls, and nesbitt's ability to get those balls in the right area were the two primary factors keeping defenses from congesting the box, making them extra vulnerable if a mistake is made on D - the lateral threat is critical; if it isnt there, than we have to find other ways to spread the field or build cushions for our wide receivers. I think there is a real opportunity for a skilled a-back to take advantage of the middle third of the field in the air, and Orwin could be the guy to force an extra read step from the LBs, so long as a QB presents an actual ability to get it there. We've got to find a way to create mismatches and accommodate for the skill sets of our offensive weapons

The defense will be fine, but they are never going to be great without a disruptive DL - and let's be honest, or DL didn't do anything for us last year. Logan Walls should be playing DE, as he is too passive for a NT, not a centerpiece to a defense.. we need to roll the dice again here, and get our biggest meanest lineman at NT, and Shawn Green is the only guy I've got hope for there. We know what Logan brings, and it is solid, but nothing more. Shawn might not pan out, but at least it appears that his potential reaches a level that could bring the defense an entire step up, why not take the chance.. Nobody expects this team to go anywhere, we finished 5-7 last year; this is no time to be conservative, it is a time to play for greatness and set ourselves up for the next few years

I'm very happy we committed Marcus Allen - he seems like a talent at b-back that I didn't expect to have the luxury of ever seeing again at GT, hope he can live up to it...

Actual predicted record (considering that Johnson will actually make some adjustments throughout the season) 7-5 (bowl game is a toss up)

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Atlanta Braves Pitching 2012

 Some of my thoughts on Braves pitching strategy for 2012...


Keep JJ and let his contract run. We could get him in FA anyway; I don't think he has the flash to get the media hyped up enough about him ever, so I say keep him and try to sign an extension after next year. - He is so dynamic with all his different fastballs, and he can pitch a bad game and still give us a chance to win - we need a strong veteran to anchor the rotation; I'm just worried that he doesn't handle the hottest months so well, and we can't ask him to go 8 innings every start in the first half of the season.. you can see the effects of wear and heat on him right now.. his control is slipping just a bit.. either way; we need him over the course of a season to go out and give us a chance to win everytime he's up

Tommy Hanson - Given, he looks like our ace over the next five years, but he has got to come into games with a better grasp on what he wants to do.. he doesn't seem confident in his approach to games, and he is unsure of his pitches in early innings.. his tedious delivery builds too much stress on him, especially out of the stretch, and he will have to calm that down if he ever wants to pitch to his potential in august

Tehran - no question we need him day 1 next year.. He has the flash, but I'm worried about that curveball of his.. he's all fastballs, but I dont think he gets much action on any of them, just fools batters with fluctuating speed. he is going to need to tighten up the curve, cause if his fastball command is off.. he will be forced to throw it for a strike when behind in the count, and I'm worried he'll leave a couple of meaty pitches hanging over the plate

Medlen - if he comes back to full strength, I can't help but want to see him in the rotation - that changeup is incredible - he can place his fastball and run it up into mid 90s if necessary, and good curve and slider to go along --- lots of upside with medlen..  he is the second most complete pitcher behind JJ - but he might not be able to start a full season ever.. so I could see him working middle relief the first half of the season, and really come in big the second half of the season when we need more long relief efforts and make the spot start

Beachy - I'm not too high on beachy.. his stuff all just seems pretty ordinary, but he can execute.. I just think that the bats in the division will start to learn his tendencies with more time in the bigs, and he wont ever have that un-hittable, two-strike pitch to sit batters down, especially the third time through the order..  just seems like he wont even be able to lean on pure ability to get batters out - maybe I'm wrong, but I'd deal him in the off season while the value is there, and try to secure a good young shortstop

Hudson - keep him till he can go no more

Lowe - I actually like Lowe, and his ability to pitch in tight games.. problem is he is overeager to keep his pitch count low when pitching with the lead, and he risks leaving to many balls a bit too high in the zone in 4-6th innings, just trying to hum along-- he just wont accept that he does actually start wearing out, and he can't have the low and away pitch is missing just enough middle in to lead off guys (especially righties when the pitch drrifts too far in)in the 4th,5th, and 6th innings - as a result, the following batters get ahead in the count cause he'll over compensate outside to make sure he doesnt give up two doubles in a row.. but I like the man overall, and think that he wont be lax with lead off guys in the playoffs, no matter how big the lead-- at the end of the day, the dude is eating up too much salary, and I think he could still do well for an american league club where his mentality when there aren't as many holes in the opposing lineup (and where he never will need to swing a bat, wearing himself out)

Minor - just dont know anything about him really

Viscaino - from what I'm reading - I'd hate to not have him in the rotation, but hate it even worse to see him pitch no innings for us - we can't have youth up and down - we need some maturity in there to make sure we down get swept eve, so i think the rotation will look pretty straight forward as this...

Hanson
JJ
Hudson
Tehran
Beachy (even though i think we should move him, I don't think we will) -- good news is, if he or anyone starts slipping, we've got plenty of arms in waiting
  --- I would rather see Medlen stepping in the 5th spot, assuming he can return to form, putting Vizcaino in the pen.. I think Vizcaino should get some spot starts in the first half of the season, so he will be a long reliever who seldom pitches in the first half with a few scattered starts, and a well utilized long reliever if medlen isn't filling that role.. it could go so many different ways for this 5th spot, but the only real way beachy moves out of the rotation is in a trade.. he wouldn't work out of the bullpen, and we'd be dumb to strangle his trade value there